World Cup group stage: where the value lives, where it has already gone
The group stage is two rounds deep and the markets have already moved on the obvious stories. South Africa play Korea Republic on 25 June at 03:00 SAST. The Korea moneyline opened at 2.26 and is now 1.54. That price reflects the result of the first two rounds, not the matchup. We are not chasing it.
Three picks the desk is sitting on, with the price we wrote at:
- Brazil vs Haiti, 20 June. Over 2.5 bookings at 1.74. Tournament football lives on yellow cards. Haiti's only route into this game is to foul Brazil out of rhythm. Banker.
- Scotland vs Morocco, 19 June. Over 8.5 corners at 2.03. Morocco hold the ball and Scotland defend deep, so the corner count compounds. Side play.
- Scotland vs Brazil, 24 June. Scotland moneyline at 7.00. Long shot, single unit. Brazil have rested key players and Scotland need a result.
None of these prices are in the SA market because the SA bookmakers do not price corners and bookings on every World Cup tie. The price quoted is the best European price we found at the time of writing. We will update if Hollywoodbets, Betway or Easybet list the same line.
